According to the data that was provided by Goldman Sachs economic research team, the winner for this year Euro 2016 will not be England. As we all know, in many occasion team England has come out top in terms of winner prediction for many international tournament in the past. However, according to Goldman Sachs, England is rank in at the 4thposition for this year Euro 2016.
Instead of England, the Goldman Sachs team is backing the host nation France to win the tournament this year. According to their model, the French team has a better chance of winning the cup as compare to 2014 World Cup winner. The French team has a 23.1% chance while the Germany Team has a 19.9% chance this year. The team that come in third is Spain with 13.6% chance.
Albania seem to have no chance of winning the Euro 2016 at all as according to Goldman data as the model show 0% of winning the cup. Northern Ireland and Wales shouldn’t give up their hope as they still manage to score 0.1% for taking home the cup.
The Goldman Sachs ranking is actually based on the data collected from thousands of previous game. One of the person in charge of this ranking state that ‘through the use of historical performance data from each team and ranking them by using the Elo rating system that was originally devised to rank chess players, we are able to estimate a set of probabilities that a specific team will reach a specific round and all the way up to the finals. We have also come up with a modal whereby how the tournament will most likely unfold.’
Goldman did not just stop at predicting the winner for Euro 2016, they did in fact predict the overall outcomes in great detail for the outcome of every game in the championship knockout stage. If everything work according to what they have predicted, England will beat Romania in the last 16 and proceed to beat Portugal, in the quarter-finals before ending with a loss to Spain in the semi-finals. More details on their forecast is shown below:
People in charge of this prediction include researchers Sven Jari Stehn, Donnie Millar and Jan Hatzius. Even though they have spent a serious amount of time on this prediction, but they note that they are not 100% confident about the result.
These predictions can only act as a guideline for the tournament as it is hard to assess how accurate it would work out to be. ‘On the plus side, our approach actually take into consideration that the stochastic nature of the tournament using statistical methods and we do think that the Elo rating-the most important input into our analysis-is a compelling summary of a team’s track record. On the minus side, some of the potentially important factors are difficult to summarize statically and that include the quality of individual players unless their performance are reflected in the team recent track record.
The European Championship this year isn’t the first time the Goldman has come out with their own prediction in a major football tournament. In 2014, they had predicted that host nation Brazil would have a 48% chance of winning the World Cup. However, during the semi-final stage Brazil was knocked out of the tournament by losing 7-1 to Germany in a game that shocked everyone.
The Goldman ranking system failed to pick Germany as the eventual winner. They state that ‘when fully updated, our ranking system actually predicted the winner of every match in the knockout stage except for the 7-1 semifinal between Germany and Brazil.’ As of now, the odds being offered by the bookmakers for Euro 2016 are pretty much in line with the Goldman’s prediction.
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